Why credits hide your real bill
A startup on AWS Activate, Google Cloud, Azure, or an AI API credit program often sees a net bill near $0. Budgets and dashboards that read the net number stay quiet. Meanwhile, usage keeps growing.
When the credits end or expire, the full bill arrives in one month. This page calls that the credit cliff. The bill did not jump. The credit that covered it went away.
What AWS credits do not cover
The AWS Promotional Credit Terms list exclusions. Credits do not apply to AWS Marketplace, some AWS Support, or Route 53 domain registration. They also do not cover "any upfront fee for any Services such as Savings Plans and Reserved Instances".
The same terms say credits are "valid for a limited time only". Read the terms that came with your own credits. Your program can differ.
So the calculator is an estimate. If part of your bill is not eligible, you pay for it in cash from the first day. It is not in the usage number you enter here.
How to see the usage behind your credits
AWS Cost Explorer and AWS Budgets both have a Charge type filter. "Credit" is one value of that filter. Exclude it, and the report shows the usage before credits.
Use that gross number as the input for this calculator. Then set a budget alert on the same gross number. The alert fires when real usage grows, even while credits cover the bill.
The last 90 days of credits
Use the calculator to find your cliff month. Then work through this list before the credits end.
- Find the cliff month, and put it on the team calendar.
- Find the gross monthly usage, and check that it matches what you entered above.
- Rightsize or turn off resources nobody uses. Do this before the first cash bill, not after.
- Plan commitments with care. Credits do not pay an upfront fee for Savings Plans or Reserved Instances, so that fee is a cash cost.
- Set a budget alert on gross usage, so the first cash month is not a surprise.
How the calculator works
Month 1 is next month. It runs at your current usage. Each later month grows by your growth rate, compounded. The running total is compared with your credit balance.
The run-out month is the first month where the running total reaches the balance. If that month is on or before the expiry month, the credits run out first. If not, the credits expire with money left, and the unused balance is shown.
The first full bill is the usage in the first month with no credit at all. It is the month after the run-out month, or the month after expiry, whichever comes first. The run-out month itself is only partly covered, so the calculator does not count it as a full bill.
The search stops after 120 months. If your balance lasts longer than that, the calculator says it never runs out.
Once you know the cliff month, put a number on the budget that should never be crossed. The forecast calculator projects growth, and cost alerts tell you when daily spend jumps.